Colloquium: Prof. Dr. Christian Flachsland

We introduce and test a novel qualitative design and assessment framework for climate policy mix pathways and use it to construct and assess alternative policy pathways offering increased ambition of GHG abatement in Germany’s light duty vehicle (LDV) sector. The main novelty of the approach is a strong focus on temporality, starting from the observation that net zero GHG transitions undergo different stages with different challenges, and therefore different policy approaches are needed as the transitions in different sectors mature. We identify key intertemporal challenges for LDV transitions that policy mix pathways need to address. We use our approach to compare the stringency of policy instruments over time across different future policy pathways, first reconstructing the status quo policy pathway in Germany, including the EU commissions’ ‘Fit For 55’ proposals. We then propose and qualitatively assess three alternate policy mix pathways which promise to enable the achievement of 2030 German GHG and BEV targets. Each of the alternate pathways carries different risks in terms of LDV transition challenges. We hope our approach can succeed in integrating insights from different academic disciplines (e.g. engineering, economics, political science) and bridging different communities (e.g. academia, applied policy analysts, policymakers), and help stimulate similar analyses in other sectors and regions.