Linking Science and Policy Analysis to Address Climate Change and Air Pollution
We would like to warmly thank Prof. Noelle Eckley Selin for her visit to the ISTP and her interesting and insightful talk on climate change and air pollution.
by Marina Voudrisli
Prof. Selin´s core interests lie in the intersection of natural sciences and public policy as well as in the efforts to regulate hazardous substances. In the context of policy, she focuses on the systematic analysis of the interactions of natural environment with human activities, considering economic and political aspects in order to inform decision-making on air pollution, climate change, and harmful substances. More specifically, during her presentation regarding the different climate change mitigation pathways, she placed emphasis on the various aspects that should be considered in the process of understanding how a policy option will impact climate, human health and ecosystems. She drew attention to the links between air quality, climate change, and health as well as to the urgent need of stakeholders´ and policy makers´ direct involvement in the decision-making process.
Air Quality and Climate Change
Multiple linkages connect air quality and climate change. Climate can affect air quality; air quality can affect climate change and both can directly or indirectly affect health. Climate change is today a burning issue and the need for an efficient, long-term policy is as urgent as ever. Over the last decades, the temperature has increased dramatically, it has topped the 1o C threshold, and it is likely to exceed the 1.5o C threshold that has been set as an aspiration by the Paris climate agreement in 2015. At the same time, air pollution-related health effects raise significant concerns, causing up to 4.2 million deaths from outdoor air pollution with an even larger number of hospitalizations. Due to climate change, ozone- and fine particle-related mortalities are expected to increase even more. Anthropogenic sources lead to higher concentrations of PM2.5, O3, and GHGs. More specifically, all major combustion sources emit multiple pollutants, including CO2 and varying combinations of particles and O3. Power plants and some industrial sources emit CO2, SOx, and NOx, cars and light trucks emit CO2 and O3 precursors. In general, climate change is expected to worsen air quality in several densely populated regions by changing atmospheric ventilation and dilution, precipitation and atmospheric chemistry. Within this framework, the necessity of adopting a holistic approach and implementing a long-term strategy which will mitigate climate change and will control the sources of air pollution seems to be the only viable approach.
Prof. Selin argued that policy actions may have higher or lower impact on climate change mitigation and air pollution reduction. As previously mentioned, air quality and climate change are inexorably linked from their emission sources. Nevertheless, there are adopted policies that may lead to GHG mitigation but not to air pollution´s reduction, and vice versa. For instance, some mitigation options that improve air quality, such as diesel particulate filters on vehicles, can however result in slightly greater carbon dioxide emissions. Other policies may reduce the release of specific pollutants into the air, but not greenhouse gases that lead to warmer temperatures.
Considering the complexity of the above-mentioned conditions, crucial questions emerge about the necessity of a coordinated approach considering both policies to address climate change and air pollution, the impacts that policy-making processes potentially have on addressing both phenomena, and the need of defining an effective way to inform policy makers. Other concerns include the future projection of the effect of climate change on air quality, as well as the regulations needed to mitigate adverse health impacts. According to Prof. Selin, another aspect that should be considered in the process of understanding the various pathways from policies to their impacts and feedbacks is the following: Local as well as immediate benefits can be observed in terms of air quality improvement. On the contrary, climate change is a long-term policy challenge that easily exceeds the time frame of human generations and political generations.
Cases
In an effort to further investigate the topics that arose regarding the previous questions, two different cases in two different countries were examined and presented. In both cases, a holistic and systemic approach was adopted, considering the interactions of the ecosystem with human activities.
Initially, the regulations to address climate change in US was investigated in the light of the present rollback of U.S. Climate Policy. Special focus was given on the quantification of the impacts of air pollution on health as well as on the economic effects. Under different economic assumptions, cost and benefits resulted from each scenario were examined. More specifically, an integrated economy-air quality-health assessment framework defined that examined the following areas: atmospheric chemistry and transport, health outcomes and economic estimates, economic sector and modelling, as well as economic activity linked to emissions. In the process of defining the optimal scenario among the various that have been implemented, interaction with stakeholder as well as cooperation with policy makers played a substantial role. Moreover, the co-benefits for society were highlighted. Co-benefits of addressing climate change can produce collectively beneficial outcomes and subsequently motivate action around the world. For instance, mitigation efforts can reduce pollution, can benefit population health by reducing disease and promoting healthier lifestyles and support economic development. The results of the afore-mentioned analysis were comparable across the different scenarios that have been examined, and it was concluded that substantial co-benefits are achievable from carbon mitigation policies.
As far as the second case presented, a thorough research has been conducted regarding China in the light of China’s Paris Agreement. China has recently launched a number of initiatives to advance clean energy and announced partnerships with other governments around the globe to fight climate change. The targets that have been defined under the Paris Agreement are among others the commitment to peak CO2 emissions by 2030 at the latest, lower the carbon intensity of GDP and increase the share of non-fossil energy carriers of the total primary energy supply. Within this framework, three different policies were explored, including commitment under Paris Agreement which corresponded to the 4% policy, the 3% scenario, and the 5% scenario. The derived results included the necessity of redesigning the existing policy to reduce CO2, as well as of motivating different provinces to participate in an effort to focus on local impact. Moreover, it was deduced that national health co-benefits from improved air quality rise with increasing policy stringency, co-benefits can partially or fully offset policy costs depending on chosen health valuation, and regional differences can be translated as the existence of provincial “winners” and “losers”.
The last topic that was included under the umbrella of Prof. Selin´s presentation, was the various benefits of mercury reduction policies in China, India, as well as U.S. Mercury is a naturally-occurring chemical element found in rock in the earth's crust, including in deposits of coal. Since mercury occurs naturally in coal and other fossil fuels, when people burn these fuels for energy, the mercury becomes airborne and goes into the atmosphere. Depending on these factors, mercury in the atmosphere can be transported over a range of distances, before it is deposited in soil or water. Mercury that remains in the air for prolonged periods of time and travels across continents is said to be in the "global cycle". Different policies that affect different sectors with different impacts have been introduced to reduce mercury releases. These policies were defined under the framework of either Minamata convention or Paris Agreement. The Minamata Convention on mercury is a global treaty to protect human health and the environment from the adverse effects of mercury. Both agreements guarantee political feasibility, considering the existence of various interactions in the ecosystem by adopting different policies.
Final discussion
In the final discussion with the audience, concerns were raised regarding the establishment of a feasible and effective approach of providing policy-makers with the essential information that help them gain a greater understanding of the challenges that have to be confronted. The plausible answer to this question is based on the quantifications of the impacts of climate change and air pollution by defining the future air pollution concentrations, and the future population and mortality data, or to put it differently by providing different projections of future climate and pollutant emissions. Another topic of great interest was the possible increase in the efficacy of mitigation policies. Prof. Selin suggested an approach that involves assessment of political feasibility, understanding of political processes, cooperation with experts in the political field, as well as direct policy makers´ involvement. By providing scientific information, admissible evidence can be produced, that can be actually used in the legal system, maximizing the impact on the decision-making process.
To sum up, Prof. Selin emphasized the need of adopting a holistic approach and taking into account key considerations, such us mix of emissions, lifetime, as well as benefits and various trade-offs, in order to develop more comprehensive sustainable policies. Future research agendas and programs should recognize the broader connections of environmental issues, such as the links between air quality and climate change. This would help to build the scientific foundation to support integrated policies. In addition, if there is political resistance to address an environmental issue, recognizing the broader connections of environmental issue and implementing integrated policies could help to overcome these political barriers.
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