Economic and Demographic Effects of Emergency Risk Communication: Evidence from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster

On March 3, 2011, following a magnitude 9.0 MW earthquake a nuclear meltdown occurred in the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant releasing radiation into the environment. Within 30 hours after the incident all approx. 62’000 people within a 20 km radius around the nuclear plant were evacuated, people up to a radius of 30 km were told to stay indoors.

This distance-based regime of risk communication was later changed to an administrative boundary-based one. For instance all food produce from Fukushima Prefecture was restricted to the market 18 days after the incident. This change seemed necessary as no accurate knowledge about actual levels of contamination excited and it seemed easier to create new emergency policies on the level of administrative boundaries.

This triggered Prof. Hiroki Matsuura interest to examine whether distance-based or administrative boundaries-based risk communication is economically more efficient. In his model he looks into the change of property values given a property’s’ distance from the nuclear power plant, its affiliation to a municipality/prefecture, and the actual exposure to radiation.

Prof. Hiroki Matsuura could reveal that a correlation exists between a decrease in property values and the affiliation to an administrative district. No correlation, however, could be found concerning the distance to the nuclear power plant or the actual level contamination of one property.

The regime of administrative boundary-based risk communication apparently leads to a stigmatization of an entire administrative district independently from the actual levels of contamination. Thus, it caused unnecessary loss to property values across Fukushima Prefecture. Better knowledge about the spatial distribution of released radiation would have allowed the application of policies only in contaminated places, not generally for one entire Prefecture.

Prof. Hiroki Matsuura concludes that in cases of high uncertainty, like nuclear disasters, distance-based risk communication is an efficient first policy choice. Even in the case of over-reacting and a subsequent reduction of the perimeter distance-based risk communication has a lower likelihood of harming the local economy in the long-run than a regime based on administrative boundaries. In brief it can be said that a potentially dangerous facility, like a nuclear power plant, should never be named after an administrative district.

The final Q&A session revealed one interesting thought wondering whether a change in property values can also be observed in close proximity to nuclear power plants not affected by a certain incident.

Finally, we would like to thank Prof. Hiroki Matsuura for his interesting talk and hope to welcome him at the ISTP again soon.